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EPL Preview: Manchester City vs Arsenal (17.10.2020)

EPL Preview: Manchester City vs Arsenal (17.10.2020)
matchmetrics

Hardly a week goes by without any of the heavy weights of the English Premier League clashing. The season is still young, but we are going to use what the teams have shown already to surmise how the upcoming match between Manchester City and Arsenal might go.

Hardly a week goes by without any of the heavy weights of the English Premier League clashing. The season is still young, but we are going to use what the teams have shown already to surmise how the upcoming match between Manchester City and Arsenal might go.

On the ball, the lower polar chart, Man City is already very close to the form they’ve shown last year. Crosses have not worked out as well as before, and the rest needs some fine tuning, but it looks like they are in good shape. In defense they are falling short though. While their possession-based play does not leave their defense much opportunity to contribute as much to the team’s success as it does for other sides, they have conceded seven goals in three matches now. Yet at the same time their Tackle Defensive and Intercept Defensive ratings are nowhere near average or what they have been in 2019/20. They seem to lack defensive awareness and sharpness, which allows their opponent to structure play and create goals.

On the ball, the lower polar chart, Man City is already very close to the form they’ve shown last year. Crosses have not worked out as well as before, and the rest needs some fine tuning, but it looks like they are in good shape. In defense they are falling short though. While their possession-based play does not leave their defense much opportunity to contribute as much to the team’s success as it does for other sides, they have conceded seven goals in three matches now. Yet at the same time their Tackle Defensive and Intercept Defensive ratings are nowhere near average or what they have been in 2019/20. They seem to lack defensive awareness and sharpness, which allows their opponent to structure play and create goals.

If we put them side to side now, we are left with teams that are nearly on last year’s level in offensive output, but with defenses that need further sorting out. If this is systemic and needs adjustment from the managers and players, or whether this is down to variance and will be followed by a natural regression to the mean, remains to be seen. It bodes well though for a match that could see a lot of goals and provide some great entertainment. And given how Manchester City’s offensive outperforms Arsenal’s, I would hand this one to City, especially on their home turf.

Author:
Michael Markefka
Head of Analytics @matchmetrics
e-mail: m.markefka@matchmetrics.com